The Reason Myoko Has No Inventory

Hey guys I’m writing an extra one this week because it’s time sensitive.

As of June 4th 2026, the yen is sitting at almost historic lows, 160.023 to 1 against the dollar. If you’re a foreigner looking to buy property in Japan, this is an extraordinary window. Your money goes farther than it has in decades. Cheap houses, cheap ramen, cheap lift tickets. It all sounds great, and honestly, it is, if your a foreigner.

I don’t actively root for a weak yen. For Japanese people, this exchange rate makes international travel punishingly expensive. That’s a real cost that falls on real people, and it’s worth acknowledging before we celebrate the discount.

Now, for foreigners, on the surface, yes, it’s all upside. Rural Japan is vast. Hokkaido, Myoko, Otaru, Iiyama, strong USD or AUD goes a long way right now, and if you know you’re going to buy, I personally wouldn’t wait.

But there’s something most people aren’t talking about.

The weak yen is creating a supply crisis in the markets that matter most.

And it’s not because no one wants to sell. It’s because selling right now is financially brutal if you bought at a different rate.

Here’s a simple example. Say you bought a house in Myoko for ¥10,000,000 back when the rate was 110 to 1. That cost you roughly $90,900 USD. Now imagine you want to sell that same house today at 159 to 1. To simply get your $90,900 back, to break even on the exchange rate alone, not counting appreciation, not counting profit, you’d need to sell the property for approximately ¥14,450,000. That’s a 44.5% premium in yen terms just to walk away at zero.

So of course you hold.

You see property in Myoko sky rocketing in appreciation and you come out even?

And when everyone holds, inventory dries up. Which is exactly what we’re seeing.

I check the listings in Myoko twice a day. We’re getting maybe one new house per week. That is not normal. It shouldn’t be that thin. But Myoko is a market that has attracted heavy foreign investment over the past decade, and right now those owners have almost no incentive to sell.

This is very different from what’s happening in places like Otaru or Asahikawa, cities with much larger housing stock and historically less foreign ownership (which is changing rapidly).

Those markets are insulated from this dynamic. There’s inventory. There’s movement. Rural ski towns with concentrated foreign buyer history are the ones getting squeezed.

The same weak yen that’s drawing new buyers in is locking existing foreign owners out of selling, creating a supply crunch that drives prices up faster than they otherwise would. Demand is elevated and supply is frozen. That’s not a great combination for buyers hoping to find deals in the hottest markets.

Where does the yen go from here?

Opinions are all over the map and I am definitely not an expert so ill just give you a few opinions of people much smarter than me:

J.P. Morgan’s chief Japan FX strategist projects USD/JPY at 164 by end-2026, citing persistent US yield advantages and limited scope for aggressive Bank of Japan tightening. The bank’s position is that “as G-10 central banks near the end of their easing cycles, markets may struggle to find a catalyst for sustainable yen appreciation.” BitMEXFX Empire

On the other side, Bank of America has revised its USD/JPY forecast down to 130 by December 2026, signaling a belief that the era of yen weakness may be drawing to a close. BitcoinWorld

A May 2026 survey of major investment banks by Exchange Rates UK shows a consensus leaning toward gradual yen recovery, with most institutions expecting USD/JPY to drift toward the 145–150 region through 2027 — while acknowledging the rate will likely remain historically elevated compared with pre-2022 levels. Exchange Rates UK

Goldman Sachs sees USD/JPY drifting lower as US growth cools and real yield differentials narrow, with a base-case range of 135–145, while noting the yen may serve as a late-cycle hedge during periods of global market stress. Das Family Office

Most institutional money thinks the yen recovers somewhat, but nobody is calling a return to 110. The pre-pandemic rate may be gone for the foreseeable future.

Which raises an interesting question.

If the rate does compress, say, back toward 140, even 130 like one bank was calling, two things happen simultaneously. The exchange rate penalty for selling shrinks, potentially unlocking a wave of foreign-owned inventory. And at the same time, buying becomes less attractive for new entrants because the discount is smaller.

So will we see a flood of supply hit the market right as buyer demand softens? Will that flatten prices in Myoko and Niseko and Hakuba after years of appreciation?

Nobody knows. But it’s worth thinking about, especially if you’re on the fence about whether to buy now or wait for the “deal” that a stronger yen might bring. The deal and the inventory surge might arrive at the same time. They might cancel each other out.

What I do know is this: even at 110 to 1, Japan is still one of the most undervalued real estate markets in the developed world. Ski properties, beach properties, even Tokyo city apartments, there is no equivalent in the US. The value proposition doesn’t disappear when the yen recovers. It just gets slightly less absurd.

For rural Japan and larger cities like Otaru and Asahikawa, the supply is there right now regardless of what the yen does because the sellers are Japanese.

For the ski towns that foreigners already love, Myoko, Niseko, Hakuba, inventory is the constraint, not pricing.

Browse opportunities yourself: Check out current listings at Nipponhomes.com

Book Consultation | Subscribe to our newsletter

We’ve been building out a solid list of travel + ski partnerships lately.

If you’re gearing up for a trip and need things like luggage, Goggles, insurance and much much more there are some really good deals below.

YukiHomes Perks

We’re always looking to partner with great travel + ski brands.

If you’d like to be featured on our perks page, reach out at: Grant@yukihomes.com

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinions and experience. I am not a licensed financial advisor, tax advisor, or attorney. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

‍